The deficit in the supply of cement is met through import. Cement is imported from East Asian countries and India. However, after the decontrol of cement by the then Government of Nepal, the import has been predominantly from India. Import from other countries is negligible. The import statistics of cement from India is presented in the table 7 and table 8.
Table 7: import of cement from India
Fiscal year | Import of cement from India (MT) |
1992/93 | 152,680 |
1993/94 | 218,115 |
1994/95 | 281,138 |
1995/96 | 296,995 |
1996/97 | 403,175 |
1997/98 | 468,256 |
1998/99 | 616,409 |
1999/2000 | 619,179 |
2000/01 | 1,264,803 |
……contd | |
Fiscal year | Import of cement from India (MT) |
2001/02 | 1,379,817 |
2002/03 | 1,329,574 |
2003/04 | 931,541 |
2004/05 | 1,085,920 |
2005/06 | 646,207 |
in 2008. As import figures from 2000/01 – 2005/06 were not published
these were copied from the records of Department of Custom.
Table 8: Cement imported from India
Fiscal year | Quantity (MT) | Amount (Rs. in '000) | Price/tonne | Quantity (MT) | Total quantity (MT) |
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4 = 2/3) | (5 = 1 + 4) | |
2000/01 | 875,019 | 2,104,835 | 5,400 | 389,784 | 1,264,803 |
2001/02 | 909,195 | 2,588,424 | 5,500 | 470,622 | 1,379,817 |
2002/03 | 851,784 | 2,704,291 | 5,660 | 477,790 | 1,329,573 |
2003/04 | 563,661 | 2,185,209 | 5,940 | 367,880 | 931,541 |
2004/05 | 696,667 | 2,475,907 | 6,360 | 389,293 | 1,085,960 |
2005/06 | 424,434 | 1,543,542 | 6,960 | 221,773 | 646,207 |
- Apparent consumption of cement
Table 9: Apparent consumption of cement
Fiscal year | Domestic production | Import *** (D) | Total apparent consumption (E=C+D) | ||
Public sector * (A) | Private sector ** (B) | Total domestic production (C=A+B) | |||
1992/93 | 247,891 | 91,822 | 339,713 | 152,680 | 492,393 |
1993/94 | 315,514 | 91,822 | 407,336 | 218,115 | 625,451 |
1994/95 | 326,839 | 93,659 | 420,498 | 281,138 | 701,636 |
1995/96 | 309,466 | 133,860 | 443,326 | 296,995 | 740,321 |
1996/97 | 226,681 | 341,878 | 568,559 | 403,175 | 971,734 |
1997/98 | 139,080 | 443,518 | 582,598 | 468,256 | 1,050,854 |
1998/99 | 190,588 | 434,277 | 624,865 | 616,409 | 1,241,274 |
1999/2000 | 205,835 | 397,317 | 603,152 | 619,179 | 1,222,331 |
2000/01 | 215,098 | 378,837 | 593,935 | 1,264,803 | 1,858,738 |
2001/02 | 233,000 | 415,797 | 648,797 | 1,379,817 | 2,028,614 |
2002/03 | 255,171 | 1,482,190 | 1,737,361 | 1,329,574 | 3,066,935 |
2003/04 | 279,412 | 1,256,638 | 1,536,050 | 931,541 | 2,467,591 |
2004/05 | 277,736 | 1,578,854 | 1,856,590 | 1,085,960 | 2,942,550 |
2005/06 | 212,830 | 1,289,161 | 1,501,991 | 646,207 | 2,148,198 |
** Economic survey, 2005/06, MOF.
*** Import & export statistics, Department of Custom.
The consumption has always been much below the market demand due to low supply situation. The real demand is 10% - 20% higher than the apparent consumption. Moreover, the consumption of cement by foreign aided project is not properly recorded. It is believed that if there is regular supply of cement, donor agencies will also prefer the locally available cement to imported cement. Indian aided projects brought cement from India which is not recorded in custom points. Also 20% - 30% of the total consumption of cement is not recorded in the import statistics due to open border system between Nepal and India. Those are the reasons for the lower apparent consumption of cement. If we consider all above facts, the real demand of cement could be higher by at least 30%.
The total apparent consumption as depicted in Table 9 shows erratic trend in the cement consumption. In order to remove distortion in consumption trend moving average method is adopted which shows increased in cement consumption from 6% in 1995/96 to 52% and 65% in 2000/01 and 2002/03 respectively and similarly, cement consumption declined to 3% in 1999/2000 and 20% in 2003/04. However, the overall average consumption growth rate comes to 17%. But for the purpose of consumption projection the growth rate of 10% is adopted which is very conservative. This growth rate though lower will not affect the validity of the market study.